The best night of Andy Pettitte's baseball career: Norwich Navigator Ace for a Day! Found at http://riveraveblues.com/. Great photo gallery of Pettitte's career there.

Before we get to February though, here is the first of a series of posts regarding the direction of the Yankees, both on the field and off of it. I will pose questions that need to be answered before the season begins, beginning with what I believe to be the most important question that still needs to be addressed.

1. What is going on with the rotation?

Almost all off-season, many have wondered what the Yankees are planning on doing with the #4 and #5 spots in the starting rotation, in the wake of Cliff Lee signing with Philadelphia, and Andy Pettitte acting like he’s not playing in 2011. What people really ought to be wondering about is the status of the Yankees’ rotation as a whole, because it’s not pretty.

If only he could pitch every day...

To me, the Yankees’ starting rotation is an obvious weakness. CC Sabathia is the only pitcher in the rotation who can be counted on for 200 injury-free innings. He is the clear ace of the staff, and should contend for the AL Cy Young award yet again.

2010 AL All-Star Phil Hughes provides the Yankees with hope. He won 18 games last season and he threw a career-high 176.1 innings last year. However, he threw just 86 innings in 2009, and before last year he hadn’t topped 120 innings since throwing 146 way back in 2006, when he split time between Single A and Double A. A big jump in innings-pitched from one year to the next can sometimes lead to injuries, or ineffectiveness, and Hughes has a bit of an injury history already.

Speaking of injuries, one of the knocks on A.J. Burnett when he signed with the Yankees prior to the 2009 season was that he was injury-prone. He’s now had three straight seasons with at least 33 starts. So, a glass-half-full kind of person would believe that Burnett has turned a corner and is a healthy, durable pitcher as he enters his mid-30s. A glass-half-empty person would believe that Burnett, following a career-worst 2010 season (10-15, 5.26 ERA), will be on the disabled list a few times in 2011. I fall in the durable veteran pitcher camp when it comes to Burnett, but his lack of consistency is a huge problem for the Yankees. Healthy or not, they don’t know what to expect from Burnett.

So, the Yankees’ rotation as of right now consists of one pitcher they can truly count on (Sabathia), two spots that are completely up for grabs (#4 and #5 spots), and two pitchers with question marks (Hughes, Burnett). This is not a World Series-caliber starting rotation, to say the least.

Coming soon: Question 2 in the series.

One of the things I want to do in 2011 is write more often, and I think the remedy to that is not to limit myself in terms of topics. So in the year ahead, expect more content, expect a wider variety of pieces, and expect to be entertained…to some degree.

He's a bad, bad man?

This week’s episode of LOST, titled “Sundown,” gave viewers much to think about. We learn why Dogen came to the Island, but we don’t know how long he has been there. We learn about Sayid’s off-Island “reality,” but are left wondering what kind of person he is in the end. There are lots of ideas to delve into, so dive in with me, won’t you?

Recurring themes revisited:

–Before Nadia answered the door, Sayid’s reflection can be seen in the small window to the side of the door. We’ve seen this before, as Jack, Locke, and Kate all look at themselves in a mirror at some point during our glimpses into their other realities. As the other characters look in mirrors, they seem to be seeking answers, or seem to be recalling information or inaccuracies, or searching for…something.

Of course, Sayid is not looking at himself in a mirror. He seems unaware of his reflection. That doesn’t mean Sayid knows exactly what is in store for himself, but perhaps, by not looking at the reflection, Sayid already knows what his true nature is, and doesn’t question that.

–The other characters, in both “realities,” are seeking answers, looking for something. Sayid is also seeking answers, mostly in his “reality” on the Island.

In his storyline, both realities show him torn between choices. On the Island, he must choose between Dogen and Locke/Smokey. Off the Island, he must choose between good, redemption-seeking Sayid, and bad, vengance-taking Sayid. In both instances, Sayid goes with the “dark” side.

While Dogen refers to Locke/Smokey as “evil, incarnate,” the motives of that character are not 100% evil. Sayid intended to kill Locke/Smokey, doing Dogen’s bidding. When that failed, and L/S didn’t kill Sayid, Sayid felt a connection with L/S. I don’t believe L/S can bring Nadia back from the dead, which is what Sayid would want, but perhaps L/S can bring Sayid to Nadia by killing him. It wouldn’t be exactly what Sayid bargained for, but it gives new meaning to Desmond’s signature line, “See you in another life, brotha.”

Off the Island, “bad” Sayid kills Keamy after Keamy seemingly surrenders. But Keamy is a menacing gangster. How does Sayid know for sure that Keamy will follow through on his promise to leave Omar and Nadia and their children alone? Sayid takes matters into his own hands and kills Keamy, but was it because Sayid is bad, or because he couldn’t trust Keamy? Likewise, does Sayid kill Dogen because he’s “infected” and has gone bad, or because Sayid can’t trust Dogen?

Personally, I’d like Sayid to be neutral to all the good/evil shenanigans on the Island. His unclear motives, and his willingness to do “good,” make me believe that, like Luke Skywalker once believed of Darth Vader, there is still good in him.

New developments

–Kate, number 51 in Jacob’s playbook, emerged from The Temple unharmed, and seemingly set to join Team Locke. As Locke/Smokey saw her coming out with Sayid and Claire, he looked perplexed. Was he surprised to see her alive? Surprised to see her joining his side of the coming fight?

By the same token, Kate didn’t look like herself either. Perhaps it was her close brush with the Monster. Then again, it could have just been Kate surveying the landscape and wondering to herself, “What am I getting myself into?”

–Claire learns from Kate that she did indeed take Aaron off the Island. My feeling is that, once Kate explains to Claire that Aaron is with Claire’s mother, Claire’s original feelings about wanting to kill Kate will subside. If that winds up happening, perhaps both Claire and Kate could wreak havoc on L/S’s plan, whatever that may be.

–We got our answer from last week regarding what was going to The Temple: Locke/Smokey.

–Ben was genuinely afraid of Sayid when they ran into each other in The Temple. What are the chances that, upon seeing Sayid near the waters that may have brought new life to young Ben back in the 1970s, Ben realized that Sayid was the man who shot him?

–According to Miles, Sayid was dead for two hours. Yet, when trying to get to know how Sayid died in the season premiere, Miles couldn’t get a read on him. Was Miles telling the truth to Sayid, or was he lying to get him to work with Dogen?

–Speaking of Miles, his admission that he thought Claire was still hot was the funniest moment of the show this week.

–Before Locke/Smokey had Sayid deliver his message to the Temple Folk, we were given a steady visual diet of women and children to depict those living inside the safety of The Temple.

After the Surviving Temple Folk were seen again with Locke/Smokey, we saw people with rifles who looked grubby. The only women we saw were Claire and Kate. This seemed deliberate to me.

–Sayid pumps lead into Keamy and his men, but spares Jin. It’s a longshot, but I wonder if Sayid’s employer and Jin’s employer are connected, perhaps even the same person.

–Ilana grows more mysterious by the week. She quietly scooped up Jacob’s ashes. She forcefully steered Sun, Lapidus, and Ben to a safe haven while the Monster tore its way through The Temple. She knows a lot more than just the answer to the question, “Who lies in the shadow of The Statue?”  Hopefully, we will learn more about Ilana’s background. For her to know so much, and for us to know so little about her, is something I hope the LOST powers-that-be rectify soon.

–Richard Alpert, who told Sawyer he was headed to The Temple two episodes ago, was nowhere to be seen. I wonder what happened to him. My guess is that there was another location he needed to get to first. Perhaps he winds up somewhere on Jack and Hurley’s path back to The Temple.

–Speaking of Sawyer, where was he? Jin too, for that matter?

–Some people have wondered what Claire’s status is. Dead? Alive? Nuts? Cold and calculated?

The fact that she swung a pretty mean axe in the last episode makes me believe she is still alive. We’ve yet to see a dead entity (thinking of Locke and Christian specifically) be able to pick things up or take action of any kind; they usually manipulate others to do their “dirty work.”

Of course, the next question is about her mental state. At first, Claire seemed to be crazy. She was alone, she created a baby to replace the loss of Aaron, and to help her mentally survive in the wild of the Island. However, the reintroduction of people like Jin and Kate may ground her and bring her back to reality. If Kate is given the opportunity to explain her motive for bringing Aaron off the Island, the hold that Locke/Smokey has over her could break.

And if Kate can break the spell over Claire, perhaps it will be the beginning of the end of L/S’s quest, whatever that may be.

That’s all for this week. Maybe I’ll write less for next week’s episode, titled, “Dr. Linus.” Dr. Linus? Gee, wonder who that one will be centered on…

Earlier this week, Jeter held a press conference prior to the first day that position players were obligated to be in Tampa for spring training. While most of what he said to the media was the usual vanilla, uncontroversial stuff he’s stuck to for 15 years, there appeared to be some interesting material tucked in-between the boring run-of-the-mill quotes many are used to reading.

What follows is my attempt to deconstruct some of Jeter’s quotes to provide a better understanding of the deeper meaning behind his carefully-crafted answers to questions from the media. Quotes by Derek Jeter were found in various published reports.

What Jeter said: “I’ve never gone into a season focused on the next season. My approach since Day One is to do whatever you can to help the team win in that particular year. I’m not thinking about what’s going to happen next season.”

What Jeter meant: This is the only quote that I believe didn’t carry any hidden meaning.

What Jeter said: “This is the only organization I’ve ever wanted to play for. That’s still true today. I was a Yankees fan growing up, and this is where I want to be. I’ve never envisioned myself playing anywhere else, and hopefully I don’t have to.”

What Jeter meant: “I was fortunate to be drafted by the Yankees. My image would have been completely different if I had started my career with, say, the Kansas City Royals, and I signed with the Yankees or another big market team a while back because my first team couldn’t afford to keep me.”

What Jeter said: “I don’t have a problem with [not having a chance to negotiate a new contract before the season starts]. That’s the new policy that [the Yankees] have. They have every right to do that. I signed a long deal, I’m still under contract with that deal, and they have the right to do whatever they want.

What Jeter meant: “I signed a 10-year contract before the 2000 season started, so this wasn’t always their policy. In a perfect world, I’d already have a new contract that begins following this season, but things have changed. I am still under contract. I have made a boatload of money under this contract. I have nothing to complain about.”

What Jeter said: “I never put limitations on how long I can play. I’m going to play as long as I’m enjoying myself. I’m having a blast right now. You work extremely hard in the offseason to make adjustments. I think I’ve done that, and I’m going to have to continue to make adjustments through the years. I want to play as long as I can, as long as I’m having fun, and as long as I’m being productive.”

What Jeter meant: “Well, Alex [Rodriguez] is under contract through age 42, and Mo [Mariano Rivera] will undoubtedly receive a multi-year deal after this year at age 40 or whatever he is. The guy is just ageless. I’d like to be treated the same as my future Hall-of-Fame peers have been and will be. The organization knows what kind of work I put in during the offseason. In fact, I have changed my off-season training routine in recent years because the Yankees pointed out some deficiencies in my game that needed to be improved on. I am open to constructive criticism, but expect treatment equal to my effort.”

What Jeter said: “I’ve never been in that situation. I’ve never been a free agent; I’ve never wanted to be a free agent. That’s why I signed such a long deal. I felt, the longer the better, because I didn’t want to have to answer these questions.”

What Jeter meant: “I don’t plan on being a free agent this offseason. Either a contract with the Yankees will get done during their exclusive rights to negotiate after the season ends, or I will retire with my dignity intact. If negotiations drag out for any reason, it will mean that the Yankees don’t believe that I am able to play everyday any longer.”

What Jeter said: “I think it’s unfair to be talking about myself when we’re trying to win. That’s the approach I’ve always had. It’s not going to change. I know it’s going to cause speculation and stories out there, but it won’t be a distraction because I won’t be talking about it.”

What Jeter meant: “I’m having this press conference to humor you all [the media]. Once this is over with, I will go back to my usual vanilla quotes about putting the team first, putting winning above all else, and giving my teammates credit ahead of myself.”

What Jeter said: “I can’t think about what’s going to happen after this year. You don’t think about what legacy you have when you’re still playing. That’s something you consider when your career is over.”

What Jeter meant: “Unless the BBWAA pull an Alomar, I know that, whether it’s six years or sixteen years from now, I’ll waltz into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. The Yankees will retire my number. I get all of that. I’m just not comfortable talking about it.”

What Jeter said: “My desire is to stay here. I haven’t thought about … how much money [I] want because we haven’t sat down to negotiate anything. That hasn’t crossed my mind. That’s not what I play for. I play in order to try to help this team win. That’s what I’ve always done. My feeling is everything else will take care of itself.”

What Jeter meant: “My agent will work on my behalf to get a fair contract for both sides. I can’t imagine the Yankees would offer a pay cut, because I’ve done nothing to warrant that. My value to Yankees, both on the field and off of it, has never been higher. If the Yankees wind up balking at what my agent considers fair value, like I said before, I’ll just retire. I’m not going to make the organization look bad, because it’s not in my nature. This won’t be contentious. It will be cut and dried. Either the organization will offer what we consider fair value, or they won’t.”

There you have it. I’m no mind-reader, but it seemed to me that there was some weight to Derek Jeter’s words this week, if one were to look for them.

"Lighthouse" focused on Jack Shephard, and his fractured father-son relationships.

I’m not going to write an in-depth analysis or an episode recap of “Lighthouse,” because there are many, many others out there on the web who do a great job and will do into much more detail.

What follows, instead, is a collection of random thoughts based on what I saw in what was another instant classic episode for one of TV’s best-ever series.

–In the closing minutes of the episode, I turned to my wife and said, “I bet David [Shephard] is in Ben Linus’s European History class.” At the moment, it seemed to make sense. Of course, my better half reminded me that Jack had picked up David at a private school, not at the seemingly public school that Ben and John Locke were working at. My wife’s always got my back.

–Staying with David Shephard, my money is on Juliet as the mom. I know there are many speculating that the mother is Kate or, perhaps, Jack’s pre-Island ex-wife Sarah.

Let’s rule out Kate on age alone. David looked to be around 13. A conservative guess on Kate’s age is under 30, perhaps closer to 25. This would mean Kate would have been anywhere from 12-to-17 years old when David was born. That would certainly paint Jack in a different light.

Sarah was from Jack’s former reality. I am ruling her out on the belief that the Jack Shephard we see in the parallel reality depicted on LOST at the moment. It seems that the Islanders are more connected in the parallel reality than they were in the “flashback reality” shown in previous seasons. Sarah was not an Islander. I could be way off on this, but she just doesn’t fit.

This brings me back to Juliet. I’m going on the assumption that she and Jack meet in med school. Jack grows distant or whatever. They divorce. She’s dating Sawyer now. Maybe they go dutch on coffee…

–Something else that many people have focused on were the names scrawled out along the dial inside the lighthouse. Through the magic of the pause button on my DVR, I went back to sneak some peeks at some of the names that were listed.

#108 was “Wallace.” My guess is that Wallace is someone we know already but haven’t seen in a while, like Walt or Desmond. Perhaps it is someone else I’m not thinking of. Maybe it’s someone who’s on the show all the time, and they’ve simply gone by a different name for years. Mostly, I hope the folks behind LOST don’t introduce another new character into the mix this late into things. That’s the last thing we all need.

 Some of the other names listed on the dial there:

109?: Friendly…he’s the guy from the Others who took Walt away from Michael at the end of season one. Mr. Friendly. It was an ironic name at the time. His name was crossed out.

117?: Linus…Ben, or his dad? Either way, it was crossed out.

51: Austen…Kate. Not crossed out.

20: Rousseau…the crazy French lady or her daughter? Either way, crossed out.

42: Kwon; 15: Ford; 16: Jarrah; 23: Shephard. Same as in the cave.

–Back to Jack and David…their relationship reminded me a lot of how Michael and Walt interacted during the first season. Michael didn’t know how old Walt was and wasn’t a part of his life. Michael didn’t understand how important Walt’s dog, Vincent, was to him.

We saw some of that with Jack and David. When asked by Dogen how long his son had been playing piano, Jack said he didn’t know. David insinuated that their relationship was non-existent when he said to Jack at one point, “We see each other once a month, let’s just get through this.”

While many (if not all) of the characters have significant issues with their fathers, Jack’s is the most glaring, and his fractured father-son relationship was reflected in his interactions with David as well.

–And yes, I used “reflected” purposefully, because I want to highlight the use of reflections early in this great, final season. All of the characters (Jack, Kate, John Locke) who have been featured prominently in the parallel reality off the Island looked at themselves in the mirror, and were reminded in some ways of their Island selves. This brings new meaning to “Through the Looking Glass”.

Jack saw his appendectomy scar in this last episode. This occurred on the Island, with Juliet performing the surgery. While Jack momentarily wondered how the scar came to be, his mother reminded Jack he had his appendix out when he was a child. On the plane in the season premiere, Jack had a fresh cut on his neck, which then mysteriously disappeared when he returned to his seat.

After Kate fled the authorities in the airport and found her way to a mechanic’s shop to change, she looked in a mirror for a second before going through a bag she picked up out of the taxi she had commandeered. It was Claire’s bag, and the first item she grabbed from inside it was the stuffed killer whale that she had given Aaron when she had cared for him.

As for Locke, he was mulling over his life as he looked into the mirror. Should he call Dr. Shephard, the nice man he met in the airport, and schedule a free consult for his spinal condition? After pushing the mirror aside, Locke was prepared to move on with his life, continuing to stay in his wheelchair rather than schedule an appointment with the good doctor.

–The reflections got me thinking about the idea of the “parallel reality.” Are these really glimpses into some kind of reality? I no longer believe this.

I view it more as wish-fulfillment. Each of the three characters who have been featured in this other realm have gotten the one thing they weren’t able to grasp or understand before.

Locke gained acceptance, support, and love from Helen, something he pushed away previously. Kate gained the ability to put others ahead of herself, something she was never capable of doing before. Jack gained a son, and a better understanding of the fears of his father, and why his own father-son relationship was not good.

Questions linger though: what do these “other reality” moments do for these characters on the Island? How will the off-Island stories connect with on-Island action?

–One of the other big developments in “Lighthouse” was Claire basically becoming Rousseau, Version 2.0.

I don’t think Claire is crazy though. I think she’s doing what she needs to do to survive and she’s putting on a good show. Maybe she even got instructions from NotLocke and/or Christian Shephard on what to do, how to handle herself. Or perhaps that Dogen guy (whose interaction with Jack in the parallel reality was short, but felt loaded).

 –Hurley, as usual, stole the show for me. Comparing Jacob to Obi-Wan Kenobi was great. His interactions with Dogen and Jack were funny. His evolution from the Man with the Punchline to a leader with some charisma, both on the Island and in the “wish-fulfillment reality,” has been one of the great changes to the show. The fact that Hurley’s confidence in both realities is similar furthers my belief that the two places are intertwined somehow.

–One of the many things I’m wondering: when Jacob tells Hurley not to go back to the temple because someone bad was going to the temple, was he talking with 100% certainty about Fake Locke? Because it’s possible that the real evil isn’t Fake Locke. Ben Linus has consistently played the villain, and always seems to have his own agenda. Ilana, being new and mysterious, also has me wondering if she could be the source of Jacob’s worry.

I know Locke is now the Smoke Monster; there is no question he is bad. But my question at the end of this episode is if he is really the one that should be feared, or if someone worse is laying in the weeds, so to speak.

–Lastly, there was this exchange between Jack and Hurley, upon encountering the lighthouse:

Jack: “I don’t understand. How is it we’ve never seen it before?”
Hurley: “Guess we weren’t looking for it”.

Talk about saying everything without saying anything at all. Hurley’s loaded answer to Jack’s information-seeking question implies that only those who have been directed by Jacob to find the lighthouse will do so.

Now, large structures such as lighthouses don’t just appear at the whim of a seemingly all-knowing spirit so, like the four-toed stature foot and the temple, the lighthouse has always been there. However, since the Island itself has the capability to move when someone turns a frozen donkey wheel, who’s to say that the location of the lighthouse can’t be manipulated by Jacob or someone else?

I could go on for another couple thousand words on various theories pertaining to the Island, the show, the characters, etc. Hopefully, you’ve enjoyed my contribution to the LOST universe. Thanks for reading.

Parallel Realities Thoughts:

I am calling them parallel realities, even though they appear to take place three years apart. I say “appear to take place three years apart,” because there is no way of knowing at this point whether or not this is true.

On the surface, it would appear to be true: Claire was pregnant in 2004 and is pregnant in the parallel reality off The Island. But is it possible this pregnancy is child #2 for Claire Littleton? Or could the world have skipped ahead three years as a result of a worldwide white flash?

It seems unwise to be married to the idea that the Off-Island Reality occurs in the year 2004 just because the plane from Sydney to LA was carrying many of the same folks who were on the Oceanic 815 flight in the pilot episode (not all of them, remember. Shannon was not on-board, for instance). It is entirely possible that time travel may not be exclusive to The Island, especially in the wake of The Incident.

Perhaps the Big White Flash at the end of season 5 was a final release of the cosmic energy that made The Island special. If that’s the case, then why couldn’t time travel happen in other places in the parallel reality off The Island?

Another reason to think about timelines is the idea that The Island, in the parallel Off-Island Reality, was submerged in the ocean, and seemed to have been there for many years. Based on the fact that structures from The Island remained intact, it would appear to be a longshot that Jughead was the cause of its underwater location. How would an entire community of houses survive a nuclear bomb? How would the four-toed foot statue have not blown to bits?

Something else had to have put The Island underwater, with all those structures intact. What that something else is, I wouldn’t have the first clue. Jughead would have likely caused widespread damage though.

Jacob/Temple Others vs. Man In Black/Smoke Monster/Locke:

Charles Widmore stated last season to John Locke that there was a war coming in the episode “The Life and Death of Jeremy Bentham.” It’s pretty clear to me that one major story arc that will be resolved is which side wins this war.

There is no question the Temple Others are on one side of the battle lines, and the being that is now John Locke is forming the other side. Where the Oceanic survivors fall on either side of those battle lines will be interesting.

Some early speculation has Sawyer siding with Locke, based on the most recent episode “The Substitute,” but I’m not 100% sold on that idea. While Sawyer quickly noticed there was something different about Locke, he didn’t back down from him, even pulling a gun on him at one point, believing that Locke was going to kill him first.

Sawyer has never subscribed to destiny. Why would he start now? Because Locke took him to a cave with his name scrawled on the ceiling? With everything Sawyer has seen and experienced (hello, time travel?), why would he willingly give himself over to Locke without having an ulterior motive or a hidden me-first agenda? This is Sawyer we’re talking about here! The guy who raided the remnants of the plane for supplies. The guy who conned people for a living in a former life. The guy who conned the entire Dharma Initiative (and himself to some degree) for three years.

Who may side with Locke? Kate perhaps. Her name wasn’t written in the cave, making it unlikely that she is a “candidate” to replace Jacob. If one were to believe in destiny, if she didn’t have one with Jacob, then it makes sense to think her destiny is to side against him. Then again, Jacob did make it a point to touch Kate when she was a child, so who knows what the story is behind her name not being amongst those in the cave. Claire could side with Locke perhaps, because Locke could promise her an escape off The Island to find Aaron. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s best guess.

As for who would be on Jacob’s side…it’s clear that the Dogen-led Temple Others are anti-Locke, as is Richard Alpert (who seemed genuinely scared of New Locke in the latest episode). Whether or not they can effectively retain the services of the Oceanic Folks (plus Miles) remains to be seen.

Quickly on the Temple Others before I move on…Richard Alpert has to, at some point, become the head honcho doesn’t he? Why would the show-runners invest so much air time on this character for him to continue to be a supporting player? Dogen doesn’t strike me as someone who the time travel-weary Oceanic + Miles crew would follow for very long, and while Dogen and Jack seem to have built a bit of a rapport in the episode “What Kate Does,” Jack’s statement about not being able to trust himself makes it hard to envision him as the “go to” guy either.

Viewers have yet to be given much background information on Richard Alpert, even though he’s been on the show for several seasons. He doesn’t age for a reason. He knows a lot about The Island. There is too much unanswered about Alpert for him not to be a major player in the final stretch of episodes. He has to have a major leadership role as the show winds down.

Jacob’s Ashes

Overlooked in the Locke-centric storyline was the interaction between Ilana and Ben in Jacob’s lair. Ben doesn’t admit to stabbing Jacob, but he does mention that New Locke kicked Jacob into the fire, burning him into ashes. Ilana went right to the fire pit and extracted a healthy amount of Jacob’s ashes upon hearing Ben’s story.

What is the significance of these ashes? They strike me as a big part of some future storyline. Ashes are used to protect The Temple. Ashes are used by Bram to protect himself when he encounters the Smoke Monster form of New Locke. Ashes ring a circle around the cabin in the jungle as well. Whether or not these are all related or connected remains to be seen, but why incorporate them into the story otherwise? And why make it a point to have Ilana pick up Jacob’s ashes and put them into a pouch for herself? What purpose do they serve?

In a Twitter exchange with Entertainment Weekly‘s Jeff “Doc” Jensen, he hypothesized that Jacob has likely died several times over, and that the ash from his many deaths is used for protection. Jensen also theorized that the ashes may have an effect on the Temple spring. (Thanks to Jeff for replying to my tweet by the way.)

If true, (and I totally buy this. It makes a ton of sense.) I like the idea of Jacob being a role and not strictly a person. In other words, there have been several Jacobs over the years and, likewise, several Men in Black over the years. New Locke is the latest incarnation of the Man in Black/The Smoke Monster. If this theory comes true, someone will likely take on the role of Jacob at some point this season.

I originally thought Sayid was inhabited by Jacob, because he seemed dead and because Miles seemingly couldn’t get a read on him (watch the last few minutes of “LA X, Part II” to see what I mean. Miles, looking intently at Sayid, replies to a question from Hurley by saying, “Nothing,” as if Miles is expecting to hear Sayid’s final thoughts but doesn’t.).

Perhaps, instead of Sayid being taken by Jacob, the ashes collected by Ilana will be used by Dogen, Richard, or some other Temple Other to allow Jacob to inhabit the next candidate to be killed. Or, perhaps one of the candidates will offer themselves up in sacrifice for the good of The Island. Could Jack, who seems to feed on the idea of fixing things or seeking redemption, offer his body as a vessel for Jacob, especially now that he has lost faith in himself?

More importantly, Jack giving himself up for Jacob would set up the obvious Locke vs. Jack final battle that many fans have expected for a few seasons now. Jack isn’t dead yet, but perhaps his newfound appreciation for destiny would lead him to believe that dying for Jacob is the path he’s meant to take.

Like all theories, it’s just food for thought. If any of these pan out, it would not surprise me. If I’m way off base, that wouldn’t surprise me either. At the very least, I’m not afraid to put these theories out there for consumption and, most likely, for people to shoot them down. Thanks for reading.

In addition to those three, I believe four more players who have hung around on the ballot for several years also belong in Cooperstown. Here now is a look at each player who has been on the ballot for a while, and my take on whether or not they belong in the Hall.

Allez Les Expos! Allez Monsieur Raines!

Tim Raines:

It’s easy to be impressed and to forget about Raines, all at the same time. This is due in large part to the flamboyant personality, and dominant play, of Rickey Henderson. It’s also due to the fact that Raines’ best years were played out of the spotlight in Montreal. 

Raines is 5th all-time in stolen bases (808), and he scored over 1,500 runs in his career. He was a seven-time All-Star, and he also led the NL in hitting in 1986. Raines’ numbers were dwarfed in many ways by Henderson, but they compare favorably to another Hall of Fame leadoff hitter: Lou Brock.

From 1981-1990, Raines’ average season looked like this:

.302 batting average, .391 on-base percentage, 93 runs scored, 63 stolen bases, park-adjusted OPS+ of 132.

From 1965-1974, which includes his then-record 118 stole base season of 1974, Lou Brock’s average season looked like this:

.298 batting average, .351 on-base percentage, 104 runs scored, 67 stolen bases, park-adjusted OPS+ of 116.

While Brock hung on longer as an everyday player, Raines’ decade with Montreal trumped Brock’s 10 best consecutive seasons with St. Louis.

Does Raines deserve to be penalized for being reduced to a part-time player in the mid 1990s? Should his post-Lupus return to the game in his 40s tarnish what he did in the 1980s?

No. Tim Raines should be in the Hall of Fame.

Harold Baines:  Baines has 1,628 career RBI, ranking him 29th all time. Every player ahead of Baines is either in the Hall of Fame, recently retired and a likely Hall of Famer (Frank Thomas, Sammy Sosa), still active and adding to their RBI total (Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Jr., Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez), or a known steroid user whose Hall of Fame induction is less likely (Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmiero).

Based on that lone stat, Baines should be in the Hall of Fame, some might argue. Of course, those who argue this point would conveniently leave out the fact that Baines was a full-time player for 20 years and had only three 100 RBI seasons. Or they would ignore that Baines finished in the top-10 in league MVP balloting twice in those 20 full seasons.

I don’t mean to pick on Harold Baines. He compiled some impressive statistics over the course of his career and certainly deserves consideration for baseball’s ultimate honor. However, he was not an impact player and does not belong in Cooperstown.

Clean or not, McGwire was a big part of the last 15 years of baseball.

Mark McGwire: Leaving aside the steroid issue, Mark McGwire has Hall of Fame numbers.

He hit 583 HR, and was the first player in league history to hit 70 HR in a single season. Four times in 11 full,healthy seasons, McGwire led his league in each of the following categories: HR, slugging percentange, and OPS+.

Injuries kept McGwire out of action for significant amounts of time in 1993, 1994, 2000, and 2001. He never reached 2,000 hits, and for all those prodigious blasts, McGwire fell short of 1,500 RBI.

McGwire did make 12 All-Star teams in his career, and he finished in the top 10 in MVP balloting five times. He topped 30 HR in 11 seasons, 100 RBI in seven seasons, and finished with a career OBP of .394.

Right now, steroid and preformance-enhancing drug use is a hot-button issue. In 20 years, we may all look back on the wait McGwire faced before entering Cooperstown as a giant mistake in judgement, because advances in medicine and/or biotechnology will have changed the face of professional sports.

I used to believe McGwire and others who used steroids didn’t belong in the Hall of Fame. However, I’ve changed my stance and believe Mark McGwire is a Hall of Famer.

The precursor to Rivera and Hoffman, Smith should be in Cooperstown

Lee Smith: Lee Smith retired as the all-time leader in saves, with 478. At the time, no one else was within 50 saves of the record.

Smith led his league in saves four times during his career, and finished second on four other occasions. He was a seven-time All-Star, finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting three times, and had one top-10 MVP finish.

Trevor Hoffman, the current all-time saves leader who many believe will sail into Cooperstown, led his league in saves just twice (with five second place finishes). He has also made seven All-Star teams, finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting three times, and twice finished in the top-10 in MVP ballotting.

Hoffman’s career ERA+ is 147, while Smith’s is 131, and that’s a significant difference. Besides that, their careers are very similar. To me, if Hoffman is a Hall of Famer down the road, Lee Smith should be one now.

Andre Dawson: Before it became fashionable to compile 30-30 seasons, Andre Dawson had five seasons with at least 20 HR and 20 SB, including the 1981 strike year, when Dawson hit 24 HR and swiped 26 bags in just 103 games.

Dawson also had nearly 1,600 RBI for his career, to go with 438 HR, 2,774 hits, eight Gold Gloves, and the 1987 NL MVP award.

From 1980-1983, Dawson’s average year was: .302 with 24 HR, 87 RBI, 31 SB, 94 runs scored, and an OPS+ of 140. Dawson made three All-Star teams during this stretch, won Gold Gloves in each of the four seasons, finished second in MVP ballotting twice, and seventh one other time. In these four years, Dawson was a great baseball player.

From 1987-1990, Dawson averaged the following numbers: .290, 30 HR, 98 RBI, 76 runs, OPS+ of 130. He won the MVP in 1987 and made the All-Star team in each season. Dawson also won two Gold Gloves during this period.

Dawson’s admittance to the Hall of Fame would mean that other borderline candidates such as Dave Parker and Dale Murphy would need to be inducted as well. While Dawson had a very good career with some excellent seasons, he remains on the outside looking in, in my opinion.

Alan Trammell: Alan Trammell’s career is similar to Barry Larkin’s in many ways. The biggest similarity is the fact that both Larkin and Trammell were overshadowed to some degree by Cal Ripken, Jr’s many accomplishments.

The fact that Trammell was able to earn three Silver Slugger awards and four Gold Gloves during the prime of both he and Ripken’s careers is a testament to the quality of player that Trammell was. He nearly won the 1987 AL MVP award (he had three top-10 finishes in MVP voting overall) and made six AL All-Star teams.

Also, like Larkin, injuries played a role in Trammell’s career. Three straight seasons (1991-1993) late in Trammell’s prime were cut short by injuries. By age 36, he was no longer an everyday player for the Tigers.

When I wrote about the first-year eligible players, I mentioned that Hall of Fame players usually have a combination of excellence, consistency, longevity, and good health. Trammell had some excellence and longevity, but there were some ups and downs in his statistics, as well as the injuries later in his career, that damaged his chances at Hall of Fame induction, in my view.

Don Mattingly: Growing up, Mattingly was my favorite player.

His average season, from 1984-1989: .327, 27 HR, 114 RBI, 97 runs scored, and an OPS+ of 147. In those six years, Mattingly made the All-Star team in each season, won five of his nine Gold Gloves, won the 1985 AL MVP award and had three other top-10 finishes in the ballotting, and won three Silver Slugger awards.

In 1990, Mattingly missed nearly half the season with a severe back injury, and was never the same player:

His average season, from 1990-1995: .286, 10 HR, 64 RBI, 65 runs scored, OPS+ of 104.

I would love for Don Mattingly to be in the Baseball Hall of Fame, but he’s not worthy of induction, and he’s not really worthy of being in the conversation.

Jack Morris: Here’s a statistical look at two pitchers from the same era. One is Jack Morris. The other shall remain nameless for the time being:

Mystery Man: 245-193 record, 3.70 career ERA, career ERA+ of 106, led league in complete games two times and led league in innings pitched, shutouts, and ERA once apiece. Made four All-Star teams, and had two top-5 finishes in Cy Young balloting.

Morris: 254-186 record, 3.90 career ERA, career ERA+ of 105, led league in wins twice, and led league in innings pitched, complete games, shutouts, walks, and strikeouts once apiece. Made five All-Star teams, and had five top-5 finishes in Cy Young balloting.

The only major difference between Jack Morris and the Mystery Man is the top-5 finishes in Cy Young balloting. On the strength of three 20-win seasons, Morris put together more Cy Young caliber seasons than the other player. Other than that, there isn’t a lot to distinguish Morris from the Mystery Man.

The Mystery Man? Dennis Martinez, who received 3.2% of the vote in the lone year he was eligible for the Hall of Fame. Jack Morris is closer to Dennis Martinez than he is to a Hall of Famer.

Dale Murphy: Murphy had six wonderful years in the early-to-mid 1980s, and then his statistics dropped considerably at age 32. By age 35, Murphy was done as an everyday player, although if he hadn’t won two MVPs earlier in his career, the plug would have been pulled on him before that.

Murphy’s average season, from 1982-1987: .289 average, 36 HR, 105 RBI, 110 runs scored, 18 SB. He was an All-Star in each of those six years, won two MVP awards (1982 and 1983), won five Gold Gloves, and four Silver Sluggers.

If he could have sustained that pace for another two or three years, Murphy would be a lock Hall of Famer. Instead, he’s on the outside looking in.

The time is now for Blyleven.

Bert Blyleven:  Blyleven is 5th all-time in strikeouts and 9th all-time in shutouts. The only pitcher ahead of Blyleven on both lists is Nolan Ryan. That’s it.

Blyleven is also 14th all-time in innings pitched. One doesn’t get the opportunity to throw nearly 5,000 innings without being a quality pitcher. Blyleven does has a tough case, largely because he didn’t hit any “magic numbers.”

He didn’t hang on to reach 300 wins (missed by 13). He won 20 games just once. He led the league in losses once, and had seven season with 15 or more losses, unheard of among great pitchers playing today. In fact, Blyleven is 10th all time in losses (250).

Not helping his case are his paltry All-Star team selections (2) and top-5 Cy Young finishes (3) in his 22-year career. Also, his career 3.31 ERA is solid, but pedestrian compared to other Hall of Famers.

Blyleven’s pitched mostly for bad teams though, which is why he lost so many games. To overcome this, 20.9% of his career wins were shutouts and, when given the chance to play for winning ballclubs, he was a big reason for his teams’ successes.

Blyleven is 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA in 8 postseason appearances (6 starts). While that won’t place him among the postseason legends, it does prove that, when given the opportunity in the playoffs, Blyleven was at his best.

Bert Blyleven’s induction wouldn’t mean that lesser players would also need to be elected in subsequent years. The pitchers whose careers were most comparable to Blyleven were Don Sutton and Gaylord Perry. They’re in the Hall of Fame. Bert Blyleven should be in the Hall of Fame, too.

Dave Parker: Like Dale Murphy, Dave Parker had a tremendous peak period during his career.

From 1975-1979, Parker won two batting titles, an NL MVP award, and three Gold Gloves. His average season during that span was: .321 average, 23 HR, 98 RBI, 95 runs scored, OPS+ of 147.

Parker only had one more season of that quality: 1985, when he hit .312 with 34 HR, 125 RBI, and finished second in the NL MVP balloting.

So, like Muprhy, Parker had six truly great seasons. Parker was a good player for the remainder of his career, a career that was longer than Murphy’s and in some ways more productive (more career hits and RBI).

I view Parker and Murphy as similar players in many respects, including the fact that neither sustained excellence long enough to be considered Hall of Fame-worthy.

Roberto Alomar: Hall of Famer in my book

Of all the various sports Halls of Fame, none invites more debate than the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Every January, the inductees are announced, followed by countless arguments, in print and over the airwaves, about the players who should have gotten in but didn’t. For each snubbed player, there is a statistic that backs up their claim.

In looking at the players on the ballot for the first time, some shouldn’t merit much initial thought. Based on their statistics alone, the following players can be ruled out:

Ellis Burks, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, David Segui, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile, Kevin Appier, Mike Jackson, Pat Hentgen, Shane Reynolds

Simply put, they don’t stack up with other Hall of Fame players, and their overall impact on the game was minimal compared to other peers on the ballot.

Of the players eligible for the first time, Roberto Alomar stands out as a definite Hall of Famer. He was miles ahead of his peers at second base defensively (10 Gold Gloves, best all-time at 2B), was an All-Star 12 times, and was a serious MVP candidate five times. In his prime years, Alomar and Derek Jeter were the best #2 hitters in all of baseball.

The other first-time eligibles I would consider are Edgar Martinez, Barry Larkin, Fred McGriff, and Andres Galarraga.

That's a Hall of Fame moustache, Edgar

Martinez is not a sure-fire Hall of Famer for a few reasons, some of which were entirely out of his control (injuries, bad team management). 

Some rule him out because he was a DH in 69% of the games he played. Others look at his career totals in the so-called “counting statistics” (hits, HR, runs, RBI) and decide he doesn’t measure up to other Hall of Famers in those areas.

However, Martinez had a seven-year stretch (1995-2001) in which he averaged a 1.020 OPS (on-base + slugging), along with a .329 batting average, 28 HR, and 110 RBI. Martinez won two batting titles (1992, 1995), led the AL in on-base percentage three times (1995, 1998, 1999), and led the AL in runs scored (1995) and RBI (2000) once each.

Martinez was a Hall of Fame hitter. The fact that he played just 12 full seasons shouldn’t be held against him. In those 12 seasons, Martinez had a .400 OBP or better in 11 of them, and a .300 batting average or better in 10.

Edgar Martinez is a Hall of Famer.

Barry Larkin has some elements of being a sure-fire Hall of Famer. He won the 1995 NL MVP award, was a 12-time All-Star, and won three Gold Glove awards.

Barry Larkin was light years better than his NL peers at shortstop as a hitter. He won nine NL Silver Slugger awards, more than any other shortstop. Larkin was also the first shortstop to have a 30 HR, 30 SB season.

Like Edgar Martinez, Larkin didn’t accumulate gaudy career totals in the “counting statistics.” Injuries forced Larkin to miss 35 or more games in eight of his 19 seasons. In fact, Barry Larkin managed to have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in just 10 of the 19 seasons in which he played.

The difference between Martinez and Larkin is that Martinez was a dominant player compared to all players from all positions when he was healthy, while Larkin was dominant compared to other NL shortstops. Martinez’s competition included Hall of Fame caliber contemporaries. Larkin’s competition included Jay Bell and Jeff Blauser.

Barry Larkin may have some Hall of Fame qualities, but he wouldn’t get my vote based on his statistics and my current perception of him. His stats will never change, but my perception of Barry Larkin could.

Fred McGriff hit 493 HR in his career, drove in 1,550 runs, and finished in the top 10 in league MVP voting six straight years (1989-1994).

This post gets my full professional endorsement.

If McGriff were a third baseman or a catcher, he’d be a surefire Hall-of-Famer. Unfortunately, McGriff’s candidacy has been dismissed by many because he played 1B, and because of a perception that his numbers were pedestrian compared to his power-hitting peers. Also, McGriff may be best known for ads he did for those Tom Emanski baseball instructional videos, and that may not help his profile as a potential Hall of Famer either.

However, during that six-year stretch highlighted earlier, McGriff twice led his league in HR (1989, 1992) and finished in the top 5 in all six of those seasons, averaging 34.67 HR per year during that span. Additionally, McGriff finished in the top 5 in OPS in all six of those seasons (1989-1994), leading the league in 1989, and had three 100 RBI seasons during this stretch.

Overall, McGriff had ten 30 HR seasons and eight 100 RBI seasons, including four straight 100 RBI seasons late in his career (1999-2002). He was selected to five All-Star teams and won three Silver Slugger awards. In terms of contemporaries, McGriff had the same number of Silver Slugger awards as first baseman such as Don Mattingly, Jeff Bagwell, Mark McGwire, and Carlos Delgado.

Fred McGriff’s career was a combination of excellence, consistency, longevity, and good health.  Hall of Fame players require a large amount of all four in order to have the impact necessary for induction. Quietly, Fred McGriff had them all, and should be a Hall of Famer as a result.

Prior to 1993, the idea that Andres Galarraga would play long enough to make a Hall of Fame ballot would have been questionable. Following an All-Star season in 1988 in which he led the NL in hits and doubles, and hit .302 with 29 HR and 92 RBI, Galarraga struggled in subsequent years, then his career was derailed by injuries in 1991 and 1992.

In 1993, at the age of 32, Galarraga joined the then-expansion Colorado Rockies and his career took off. He hit .370 in 1993 to win the NL batting title then, in 1996, Galarraga led the NL in HR and RBI, and again led the NL in RBI in 1997.

Galarraga finished with 399 HR and 1,425 RBI for his career, numbers that don’t match up well with other Hall of Fame first basemen. Also, to what degree were Galarraga’s statistics affected by Mile High Stadium and then Coors Field during his five years in Colorado?

While Galarraga had some very good seasons, his impact on the game is closer to the also-rans listed earlier than to peers like McGriff, Larkin, Martinez, and Alomar. Given the choice, I wouldn’t vote for Andres Galarraga.

Coming soon, a look at the holdovers on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. Will any of them gain induction this year?

–lose weight

–exercise more

–write more

–complain less

–be a better husband/father/son/friend/professional

In the end, I’ve wound up being the same person year after year despite the empty promises I’ve made to myself. I expect the promise about better picks against the spread to also be an empty one. Without further ado…

Buffalo (-8.5) over Indianapolis

Clearly, the spread of this game is affected by the belief that the Colts will sit their stars rather than expose them to potential injuries. If this game mattered to the Colts and everyone were going to play, Indianapolis would be favored by a touchdown or more, easily.

Bills 24, Colts 14

Carolina (-7) over New Orleans

The Panthers have played better football of late, while the 13-2 Saints have struggled for a month. Carolina would certainly like to close their season on a high note. What better way to do so than to demolish the NFC’s best team?

Panthers 31, Saints 17

Jacksonville (+1) over Cleveland

Two teams playing for next year or, in Cleveland’s case, draft position.

Jaguars 23, Browns 17

Dallas (-3) over Philadelphia

I wonder how deep into their playbooks these two teams will go. It’s entirely possible the Cowboys and Eagles will play one another again next week.

If that’s the case, especially if Dallas takes a sizeable early lead, the gameplans for both teams could become very vanilla in appearance. I could be wrong though.

Either way, momentum seems to be on the side of the Cowboys right now.

Cowboys 31, Eagles 24

Chicago (-3) over Detroit

With the pressure of living up to hig expectations now gone, Jay Cutler will have his best game of the season this week. What a tease.

Bears 27, Lions 10

New England (+8) over Houston

Sure, the Patriots will rest their key players at some point, but coach Bill Belichick is on the record in saying that Tom Brady and others will play.

How much they play will ultimately determine the outcome of the game, of course. Since New England is slated to host a playoff game next week, one would assume that they will play a majority of the game to stay in rhtyhm, which means the Texans are in trouble.

Patriots 24, Texans 20

Miami (+3) over Pittsburgh

Both of these teams believe that a win, along with a sizeable amount of help, will get them into the playoffs. With that in mind, the safe pick is with the home underdog.

Dolphins 27, Steelers 20

Minnesota (-9) over N.Y. Giants

The Vikings need a win to secure the #2 seed. The Giants needed a win last week.

Vikings 30, Giants 18

San Francisco (-7) over St. Louis

The next meaningful thing to happen for the Rams is this expected announcement come April: With the first pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the St. Louis Rams select Ndamukong Suh, from the University of Nebraska.

As for the 49ers, they are a few close losses away from being a playoff team this year. They seem to be on the right track and, depending on how their schedule looks next season, could have a big year in 2010. This week’s result will provide a glimpse of the future for the 49ers.

49ers 27, Rams 7

Atlanta (-2.5) over Tampa Bay

It may or may not affect the outcome of the game, but the Falcons have never had consecutive seasons above .500 in the history of their franchise.

More importantly, the Falcons played well last week despite being out of the playoff hunt in the NFC. Perhaps having both Matt Ryan and Michael Turner had something to do with it.

Tampa Bay has played better football in the last month of the season compared to earlier, and they will keep the score close Josh Freeman’s propensity for turnovers is worrisome though. The Falcons are the safer pick.

Falcons 28, Buccaneers 24

Green Bay (+3.5) over Arizona

Like the Dallas-Philadelphia game, this could be a preview of a NFC Wildcard round game. As a result, it seems likely that once one team gains a lead of 10 or more points, the gameplans of both teams will become stagnant and repetitive.

The Packers have played better, more consistent football than the Cardinals in recent weeks, so they are the pick despite being on the road.

Packers 27, Cardinals 24

Kansas City (+12.5) over Denver

Sure, the Broncos remain in the mix for a playoff spot, provided they win and other teams lose.

However, with Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler expected to be benched for this game, and with the Broncos already shallow at the wide receiver position due to an injury to Eddie Royal, Denver will be limited offensively. It should not alter the fact that Denver will win this game they desperately need, but it will affect how much they win by.

Broncos 23, Chiefs 17

Baltimore (-10.5) over Oakland

The Raiders have shown signs of life recently, including a surprising defeat of the Broncos in Denver two weeks ago. However, the Ravens will come to Oakland looking to make the playoffs. Whatever flaws the Ravens have, they will get their act together and dominate against a team with nothing to play for.

Ravens 31, Raiders 10

San Diego (-3.5) over Washington

I have long believed that Norv Turner couldn’t coach his way out of a cardboard box. My perception may have been flawed by the quality of teams Turner previously coached. Then again, perhaps Phillip Rivers and his receiving corps are carrying Turner to the heights the Chargers are reaching right now.

Either way, San Diego closes out their magical season against the Redskins, a team that Turner once coached.

While the team may not need to play all out this week because their standing as the AFC’s #2 seed is established, Turner may be personally motivated to see his current team throttle the Redskins. The players and Turner seem to respect each other.

My bet on San Diego is based on the idea the players want to provide Turner with some measure of revenge against the Redskins and their owner Daniel Snyder.

Chargers 34, Redskins 20

Tennessee (-4.5) over Seattle

Bottom line, the Seahawks are declining and the Titans are better than their record indicates. While the Seahawks have, generally speaking, played better at home, it will likely not matter this week.

Titans 24, Seahawks 17

Cincinnati (+10) over N.Y. Jets

The Bengals don’t need to win this game, but the Jets do. The question is, are the Jets capable of doing so, even when the Bengals can rest some of their top players?

With turnover-happy Mark Sanchez at QB, the Jets may be limited in what they can do on offense. Even if the entire starting defense for the Bengals sits the whole game, the backups will know the Jets’ offense will be run-heavy.

Sure, the Jets can win, but a markin of victory of more than touchdown is asking a lot.

Jets 21, Bengals 17