Spread ‘Em: Week 12 NFL Picks

Brady and the Pats have their hands full this week.

Off to a solid 2-1 start for week 12, thanks to the Packers and Broncos, I’m hoping to see that success continue into the rest of the weekend. It’s been a while since I’ve scored a big week I must admit. Following an 8-8 week 11 showing, and the 2-1 start to this week, my record on the season is now 93-70, which isn’t bad. However, after starting off hot, I’ve essentially been a 50-50 bettor in the last month or so.

For those who might be interested, here’s my picks for Thursday’s games:

http://masterprocrastinator.wordpress.com/2009/11/25/pass-the-gravy-thanksgiving-day-picks/

As always, remember the picks are for entertainment purposes only. Here’s the remainder of week 12 now:

Pass the Gravy: Thanksgiving Day Picks

Turkey, Pie and a Broncos game? Sign me up!

Less than 24 hours away from a day devoted to family, feasting, and football, here’s how tomorrow’s games are shaping up, from my point of view. Home teams are in bold, as always.

Green Bay (-11) over Detroit

After the way they came from behind against the Browns last week, I wanted to pick the Lions to at least cover. Between the fact that I hate picking against double-digit home underdogs, and my suspicion that the Packers aren’t really as good as their record indicates, I was ready to go with the Lions.

However, the Lions could be without Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, two of their young stars-in-the-making on offense. And, in all honesty, the Packers should have little trouble moving the ball and scoring a lot of points on the Lions’ defense.

I’m hopeful of seeing the competitive portion of this game before settling down before a sizeable helping of the traditional Thanksgiving fare. In other words, I don’t plan on watching after halftime.

Packers 35, Lions 17

Oakland (+13.5) over Dallas

After upending the Bengals behind Bruce Gradkowski last week, the Raiders have the look of a frisky team instead of an inept one. It will be interesting to see how Oakland follows that performance up. A few weeks ago, I’d have assumed they would have mailed this game in.

I still envision the Cowboys winning, and probably by double digits, but I expect the Raiders to make it entertaining enough to watch while eating a turkey sandwich or a piece of pie after the feast is over.

Cowboys 27, Raiders 18

Denver (+6.5) over NY Giants

I realize the Broncos have lost four in a row, but these Giants just recovered from their own four-game losing streak on Sunday with a nail-biting 34-31 win over Atlanta, a team that has struggled mightily as well. The Giants have some injury issues, the biggest perhaps being the loss of Ahmad Bradshaw for this game. Without him, the Giants will rely on Brandon Jacobs to run the football, and he hasn’t been effective all season.

 This game makes or breaks Denver’s season, perhaps. A win puts them at 7-4 going into a mini-bye week, before road games at Kansas City and Indianapolis. A loss on Thanksgiving continues their tailspin, increases the scrutiny on them, and perhaps increases any clubhouse tension that could be building.

It’s hard to be impartial here. I am a Broncos fan and I want them to win this game. The optimist in me thinks the Giants will struggle away from home following a hard-fought win and they’ll wear down late due to the thin air and the short preparation week, leading to a Denver win.

I’ll take the glass-is-half-full approach and hopefully wash down my optimism with a Sam Adams Winter Lager as Denver pulls away late. I’d certainly be thankful of that.

Broncos 24, Giants 20

Shortened Spread ‘Em for Week 11

Can Johnson Lead Titans to 4th in a row?

It’s been a crazy week for me. The time needed to write 4,000 words a week on football didn’t exist, unfortunately. I hope to make it up in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, with the three games on Turkey Day.

After going 9-6 in week 10, I picked incorrectly on Thursday, as seen here:

http://masterprocrastinator.wordpress.com/2009/11/19/nothing-could-be-finer/

On the season, including missing on Thursday, I’m 83-62 and looking ahead to the rest of the week 11 games. Without further ado…

Nothing Could Be Finer…

…than picking Carolina in tonight’s game.

The Panthers are favored by 3 points at home against the Miami Dolphins. They just beat the Atlanta Falcons last week. Plus, Miami’s dynamic running back, Ronnie Brown, was injured last week and is out for the season.

I’m hoping to get the rest of the week 11 picks up tomorrow. If not, Saturday or Sunday morning. There won’t be a Ledger this week because it’s been a busy work week for me and I haven’t had the time to write.

The plan next week, with the three Thanksgiving games, is to have the picks up by Tuesday and perhaps run a short Ledger for the week 11 picks on Monday.

Again, Carolina (-3) over Miami.

Spread ‘Em: NFL Week Ten Picks

Holmes and the Steelers have "that look" again.

With the baseball season over with, the NFL finally takes center stage in week 10.

This week’s slate of games features some potential great matchups, including the annual tilt between Peyton Manning’s Colts and Tom Brady’s Patriots.

Following two straight losing weeks, I’m now 74-55 on the season and hoping to bounce back with a slew of winners. I’ve already nailed one game this week (thanks, Jay Cutler). Hopefully, it’s a sign of things to come.

Remember that all picks are for entertainment purposes only. I apologize if you’re not entertained, but don’t ask for a refund.

I base my picks on flawed logic, personal opinion, age-old gambling trends, and matchups. If you’re looking for high-end analysis and haven’t found it elsewhere by now…I can’t help you.

Here now are the week ten picks, with the home team in bold.

The Ledger: NFL Week Nine Review (Plus A Bonus Pick!)

Ryan and Falcons got back on track in week 9.

This was the Week of the Close Call from my perspective, as a few games that should have gone down in the win column for me went horribly wrong, and one backdoor cover worked out in my favor.

As a result, for the first time all season, I’ve strung together back-to-back losing weeks. I wound up picking just 6 of 13 correctly, which puts my overall record against the spread at 74-55.

Now, a look back at the games from week nine, along with my pick for the Thursday night game in week 10, which features San Francisco against Chicago.

Spread ‘Em: Week Nine NFL Picks

Cedric Benson: MVP candidate?

As the NFL begins its second half, parity has been thrown out the window.

It seems that, week in and week out, there are clear-cut favorites and underdogs in more than half of the games played. There are few bizzare point spreads on a weekly basis.

Outside of the 6-1 Denver Broncos being underdogs every week (including this one), there are very few head-scratching favorites and underdogs. Also, the double-digit favorites are easier to pick because the underdogs are, for the most part, so overwhelmingly bad.

At the halfway point of the season, following a brutal 5-8 showing in week eight, I’m 20 games over .500 thus far (68-48), and hoping to keep making the right picks down the stretch.

Despite how well I’ve done so far, remember that all picks are for entertainment purposes only. I’m not perfect. I never will be.

If you’re a faithful reader, you know by now that I base my picks on flawed logic, personal opinion, age-old gambling trends, and matchups. If you’re looking for high-end analysis…well…I’d suggest John Clayton of ESPN, but he picked Denver to go 3-13, or something like that, so I don’t know if mainstream media analysis is the best option.

Here now are the Week Nine picks, with the home team in bold .

The Ledger: NFL Week Eight Picks Review

McNabb and Eagles are soaring.

The Ledger returns following week eight, a week that was, for me anyway, rather unsuccessful compared to the rest of the 2009 season.

I went 5-8 on the week, recording my worst week of picks against the spread all season long. The poor showing put a dent into my solid overall record, which now stands at 68-48. I’m hoping to bounce back in week nine. First though, a look back at the games I picked correctly, and the games I missed horribly on. 

Spread ‘Em: NFL Week Eight Picks

Are the Texans for real?

Welcome back to another round of picks based on analysis, insight, and hunches. It’s worked for me so far to the tune of 63-40 on the season.

After a 9-4 week seven, I’m hoping for even greater success in week eight.

Despite how well I’ve done so far, remember that all picks are for entertainment purposes only. I’m not perfect. I never will be.

If you’re a faithful reader, you know by now that I base my picks on flawed logic, personal opinion, age-old gambling trends, and matchups. If you’re looking for high-end analysis…well…the NFL on Fox pregame show occasionally has a nugget or two.

Here now are the week eight picks, with the home team in bold.

The Ledger: NFL Week Seven Picks Review

Starting to come together for Brady and Co.

Once again, The Ledger returns with fresh insight about the games that took place during week seven of the NFL season.

After going 7-7 last week, I went 9-4 against the spread in week seven, running my overall record to 63-40 on the season.

Like many, I had a good week picking against the spread because it seemed like so many of the games were predictable. The double-digit underdogs didn’t have much fight in them in week seven, and word is, the Las Vegas casinos are losing money this year. Considering how much money those casinos make, it’s hard to feel bad for those goliaths.

Anyway, I digress…here’s how my week went. Hopefully, your week went as well as mine.